How to Understand the Current Situation Based on Strauss-Howe Generational Theory 5 minutes Neil Howe and William Strauss developed the theory that the world goes through a major crisis every eighty or ninety years. Interestingly, they predicted the 2020 crisis.
Neil Howe is one of the authors of a controversial theory published in the 1990s and called the Strauss-House Generation Theory. In recent months, the theory has again attracted widespread interest. The reason for this is that the economist and demographer Howe predicted that the United States would experience a severe crisis in 2020.
This forecast was based on historical patterns he observed in his research. Together with his colleague William Strauss, he discovered that important changes in the United States and elsewhere were closely related to generational change. They measured each generation over a period of time ranging from 20 to 30 years. According to two researchers, this period ranges from 80 to 90 years. They claim that after this time, radical changes are taking place in social and political structures.
“One of the reasons this cycle of archetypes repeats itself is that every generation of young people is trying to fix or compensate that it perceives as an overkill in the ruling generation of middle-aged people. Unsurprisingly, it was the baby boomers (the generation of value-centered, individualistic, and soul-centered prophets) who gave birth to the millennial generation (the action, society, and institutional-centered hero generation). ”
– William Strauss-
Strauss-House generation theory
Neil House’s first studies were published in 1991 in a book called Generations. But it was in The Fourth Turning book, published in 1997, that he and William Strauss described the generational theory. It was in this that he and Strauss predicted a serious crisis in 2020.
The authors never spoke specifically about the pandemic. They predicted strong social unrest combined with an economic and political crisis. They believe that the United States, like other countries, is going through cycles of extensive crises that change just like the seasons.
The study also showed that the cycles of generations coincided with the following important historical events: the glorious revolution, the American Revolution, the American civil war, World War II, and the Great Depression.
Four types of generations
According to Neil Howe and William Strauss, there are four different types of generations. Each of them corresponds to a certain archetype. The authors believe that the first “turn” (turn) or birth in each cycle is like spring. It is this generation that comes after a serious crisis.
The first pivot leads to an orderly society with strong institutions and a strong sense of collective progress. There is no room for individualism. On the contrary, culture is shaped by a “rule of the majority” mentality. Howe and Strauss call it the “quiet generation”.
Second twist or second generation looks like summer. He is characterized by behavior that is exactly the opposite of that of the previous generation. Now, on the contrary, individualism is something that is highly valued and people find it difficult to live up to established norms.
This is a passionate and incredible creative generation. These qualities help people create important cultural changes and new values. People of this type of generation tend to be the cause of religious upheaval. They also contribute to “awakening” in many other areas. -Big pt – normal \ “> Fall and Winter Generation
The third turn corresponds to fall. Here, the individualism of the second turn becomes irresponsible. almost all sense of belonging and community disappears. The authors argue that this generation is characterized by cynicism and misconduct.
manifestations of individuality. Therefore, the focus is on inequality and injustice. Their sense of civic responsibility is extremely low. They put personal freedom above everything else.
The fourth generation of the cycle is winter. Serious political and social crises occur here. This generation is rediscovering civic identity and community value. The authors believe that this cycle often coincides with war or armed conflict.
Strauss-Howe’s generational theory identifies these cycles in history. Especially in the United States, but also in Eastern Europe and South and East Asia. In fact, they believe that after the Second world war, the whole world goes through similar cycles.
Howe and Strauss predict that in the next few years, our governments will be constantly asked to do more. Radical conservatism will lose its strength. This, in turn, will open the way to more socially oriented alternatives.
Thus, Neil Howe believes that the world is already in the other half of the fourth turn.If he and Strauss are right, we will soon have serious shock. They also predict the likelihood of large-scale armed conflict. According to Strauss-Howe’s generational theory, radical changes will take place in the next few years. We will have time to find out if their theory is correct.